Russia may have downed Azerbaijani jet after confusing it for Ukrainian drone, US official says. Here’s what we know

By Catherine Nicholls, Aruzhan Zeinulla, Hassan Tayir, Darya Tarasova and Oren Liebermann, CNN

(CNN) — Early indications suggest a Russian anti-aircraft system may have downed the passenger jet that crashed in Kazakhstan on Christmas Day, a US official told CNN.

The signs point to a Russian system striking Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 before it crashed near the city of Aktau, the US official said Thursday. Russian air defense units may have fired on the commercial airliner believing it was a long-range Ukrainian attack drone, they added Friday.

On Saturday, Putin “apologized for the fact that the tragic incident occurred in Russian airspace” in a phone call with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, adding that Russian air defenses were active at the time but stopping shot of admitting fault.

Thirty-eight of the 67 people on board died in the crash. Among the survivors were two children.

Here’s what we know about the incident so far.

What was the route of the plane?

The plane was traveling from the Azerbaijani capital Baku to Grozny, the capital city of the southern Russian republic of Chechnya, before it made an emergency landing approximately 3 kilometers (1.8 miles) from Aktau, Azerbaijan Airlines said on Wednesday.

According to flight-tracking website Flightradar24, the plane set off on Wednesday at 7:55 a.m. Azerbaijan Standard Time (10:55 p.m. Tuesday ET) and crashed about two-and-a-half hours later.

Officials did not immediately explain why the plane had crossed the Caspian Sea, when Baku and Grozny are to its west and Aktau is to its east.

Kazakhstan’s Minister of Transport Marat Karabayev said Thursday that a Kazakh control center received a signal from Russia around 45 minutes before the plane crashed, saying that the flight was being diverted.

The Russian dispatcher said that the aircraft was experiencing a failure in its control systems, and that the crew decided to fly to Aktau after receiving reports of bad weather, Karabayev said. The dispatcher later said that an “oxygen tank exploded in the passenger cabin, causing passengers to lose consciousness,” according to Karabayev.

On Saturday, the Kremlin said that the aircraft “repeatedly attempted to land at the airport in Grozny” but at the same time, the areas of “Grozny, Mozdok and Vladikavkaz were attacked by Ukrainian combat drones, and Russian air defense systems repelled these attacks.”

While the crew made two landing approaches at Aktau airport, the aircraft deviated from its course, and lost communication with dispatchers when it crashed, Karabayev said.

Flightradar24 said in a social media post that the aircraft was “exposed to GPS jamming and spoofing near Grozny.” GPS jamming can significantly hinder a plane’s ability to navigate and communicate, Flightradar24 said, creating potential safety risks.

Data and video of the crash also “indicate possible control issues with the aircraft,” Flightradar24 said.

Two black boxes were recovered at the crash site, Kazakh state news agency Kazinform reported, which authorities hope will provide important information to help investigators determine what happened.

It will take about two weeks to read the black boxes found at the scene, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev said, according to Kazakh state media.

What caused the crash?

Video and images of the plane after it crashed show perforations in its body that look similar to damage from shrapnel or debris. The cause of these holes has not been confirmed.

CNN aviation analyst Miles O’Brien explained Thursday that the fact that the metal around the holes is bent inwards shows that there was “an explosion in proximity to the tail of that aircraft.”

The US official that spoke to CNN on Friday also said that the holes on the side of the aircraft are consistent with shrapnel damage from an explosion.

Azerbaijan Airlines initially told state news agency AZERTAC that the incident was caused by the aircraft colliding with a flock of birds, the outlet reported. Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency also first said the plane crashed after colliding with birds.

On Friday, Dmitry Yadrov, head of Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency, gave a timeline of a different version of events, saying that Ukrainian combat drones and a dense fog forced the plane out of Grozny’s airspace after skies were closed because of the drones.

The crash came shortly after Ukrainian drone strikes hit southern Russia. Drone activity has shut airports in the area in the past and the nearest Russian airport on the plane’s flight path was closed on Wednesday morning.

Andriy Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, part of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, disputed the earlier claims of a bird strike, claiming on social media Wednesday that the plane was “shot down by a Russian air defense system.”

“Russia should have closed the airspace over Grozny but failed to do so,” Kovalenko said, speculating that authorities will try to cover up the real reason behind the crash, including the holes in the plane, as it would be “inconvenient” to blame Russia.

Justin Crump, an intelligence, security and defense expert and the CEO of risk advisory company Sibylline, told BBC Radio 4 on Thursday that the plane being fired at by Russia is “the best theory that fits all the available facts that we know of.” Crump added that Russian air defenses were active in Grozny around the time that the plane was damaged.

“I don’t think this is deliberate at all,” he noted, pointing out that Russia is “very worried” about longer-range active Ukrainian drones that are “very often not getting shot down.”

The US official who talked to CNN on Thursday did not say what type of system may have taken down the passenger jet. Russia has a number of anti-aircraft systems, including its advanced S-300 and S-400 surface-to-air missile systems, as well as its medium-range Pantsir system and others.

What are authorities saying?

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday that it would be wrong to speculate about the cause of the crash before an investigation has been carried out. On both Friday and Saturday, when asked if he would comment on reports that Russia shot down the plane, he said he had nothing to add to his previous statement.

Brazilian authorities and representatives of the plane’s manufacturer Embraer arrived in Kazakhstan on Friday, according to AZERTAC, as authorities began the process of piecing together the events leading up to the crash.

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the UN’s aviation agency, said it was deploying an expert onsite as an observer to the international investigation team. The agency also called for a “comprehensive and independent investigation” and urged all concerned parties “to protect all relevant information and records as part of their full cooperation with the investigation process.”

The European Union’s Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas also called for a “swift, independent international investigation” into the disaster, drawing parallels between the recent crash and the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, which was shot down over territory held by pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine in 2014.

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CNN’s Sharon Braithwaite contributed to this report.