Tropical Storm Sara closes in on ‘life-threatening’ and ‘potentially catastrophic’ impact with Central America

By Mary Gilbert, CNN Meteorologist

(CNN) — Tropical Storm Sara is here and closing in on Central America where it will unleash disastrous flooding rain and mudslides in the region.

Earlier forecasts from the National Hurricane Center told residents along the eastern Gulf of Mexico to monitor the storm for its potential to reach the US, but the center now believes the storm might not survive its trek through Central America and Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula.

Sara, which formed Thursday afternoon as it closed in on the Honduras-Nicaragua border, is the 18th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. It’s a season that’s lived up to initial hyperactive forecasts and hasn’t played by the rules.

Tropical activity should be winding down in November, but Sara is now the third named storm this month thanks to exceptionally warm water wrought by climate change.

Sara has 40 mph maximum sustained winds and will strengthen slightly as it moves toward Honduras Thursday. It will slow down considerably and skim along the coast Friday and through the weekend.

The storm may get so close to Honduras that it makes a few brief landfalls this weekend but will still be able to tap into the warm water of the western Caribbean Sea to sustain itself.

Tropical storm alerts have been issued for parts of Honduras and Nicaragua. The storm’s rain began Thursday in both countries and strong winds will arrive as soon as the evening and ramp up Friday.

The storm will bring “life-threatening” flooding rainfall up to 30 inches to Honduras and double-digit rainfall totals to other parts of Central America, the NHC warned. That could mean “widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides.”

It will then threaten Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula with storm surge and gusty winds by early next week, so residents should prepare.

Multiple scenarios for what could happen to Sara after its interaction with Honduras and the Yucatán Peninsula were possible over the past 24 hours, but one appears to be winning out and it’s good news for the US.

Sara is now expected to track further west over more of Central America and the Yucatán and weaken after being starved of the warm water it would need to survive. Sara will likely undergo too much interaction with land in Central America and Mexico to survive into the Gulf of Mexico, the NHC said Thursday afternoon.

This is good news for a storm-weary US Gulf Coast that’s been hit by five hurricanes this year, but the forecast could still change with the storm only just beginning its multi-day journey across Central America and the Yucatán.

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