Covid-19 infection fatality rate drops in state, nation
Over the past 6 months, Covid-19 has produced a tremendous amount of data for analysis, and quite a few opinions about the best way to interpret it.
Among the factors closedly monitored in all diseases is the infection fatality rate, the percentage of people who die after contracting the illness.
An analysis of recent cases and death data by KRDO found the fatality rate has dropped significantly, which lead us to investigate exactly why people aren't dying from Covid-19 at the same frequency as earlier in the pandemic.
Just a few months ago, if you made it out of the ICU after contracting the coronavirus, you could expect a celebratory sendoff or even a small parade from the hospital staff on your way out to recognize you beating the odds.
Survival just didn't happen all that often.
Dr. Christopher Merrick with Pulmonary Associates in Colorado Springs works with only the worst cases at UCHealth Memorial, and says in the early days of treatment, only 10-15 percent of coronavirus patients in ICU would survive.
Today, that percentage has more than tripled, to 40-50 percent.
It's great news for those who are hit especially hard by the virus.
"If we were to transport them in time back to the February March April timeframe, they probably would have died from the disease, but now we are able to salvage them and get them through," explains Merrick, "and I think that points to the fact that we're having a much better understanding of how to treat the disease."
Dr. Merrick outlined the recent changes to the way patients are treated:
-ventilators are no longer used early in the treatment process
-the use of Decadron, a steroid that helps people suffering from low oxygen levels
-the use of Remdesivir, which has been a great help to some of his most critically ill patients
-the use of convalescent plasma, blood with antibodies donated by previous Covid-19 patients; it's still considered an experimental treatment, received emergency authorization from the FDA over the weekend
Merrick also discussed the overall nature of the treatment, saying while the primary concern several months ago was Acute Respiratory Distress Sydrome (ARDS), doctors have also learned that blood clotting was a frequent symptom and often created serious problems in the patient.
So now, patients are monitored for both conditions.
During the worst of the outbreak in New York City, the infection fatality rate was believed to be around 10 percent.
According to the El Paso County Health Department, the overall fatality rate locally since the pandemic began is 2.6 percent.
However, KRDO's analysis of state data found that from July to August, the statewide rate was only around 1.3 percent.
The number was computed by adding up the total number of Covid-19 deaths in Colorado from July 15 to August 14 (150) and dividing that number by the total number of statewide cases confirmed from July 5 to August 4 (14,528).
A slightly earlier period of cases was used because patients typically worsen over a period of 7-10 days before passing away from the virus.
Merrick compares the battle against Covid-19 to rock climbing, believing that while this community has probably moved past the most challenging section, known as the "crux", there is still some work ahead.
"I think that the general public in this community should take hope that we seem to be pushing this thing in the right direction, in terms of our medical treatment and our community health management," he said, "but if we've learned anything about Covid, it's that it's very hard to forecast what's going to happen."
Doing a better job of protecting the most vulnerable, including nursing home residents, is believed to be another factor in reducing the infection fatality rate, as the mortality rate among the elderly remains much higher than other age groups.
By comparison, even if the current case fatality rate of Covid-19 is down to around 1.3 percent, it is still far deadlier than the seasonal flu, which has a fatality rate of around .1 percent.
