Marty’s Saturday Morning Forecast – Tracking A Cold Front – 7/20/19
Overview: The plume of moisture associated with the summer monsoon is mainly off to our southwest which is a significant reason for the record heat and dry conditions yesterday. It doesn’t appear the monsoon flow will settle back across the area until a little later next week, but we are tracking a cold front that will bring a shallow layer of cooler, moister air over the plains of eastern Colorado starting today. This cold front will help ease the heat, increase the humidity, and support thunderstorms over some areas of eastern Colorado.
Today: We’ll start the day out mostly sunny and breezy to windy at times. The air will heat quickly this morning ahead of a cold front, and although we won’t reach the record temperatures we had yesterday we’ll still manage to warm into the upper 80s to near 90 in Colorado Springs, upper 90s to near 100 in Pueblo with 70s to lower 80s over the mountains by early this afternoon. The cold front will work over the area through the afternoon gradually cooling the air from north to south as it does so. The cold front will also increase the low level moisture across the area, which by late in the day may have some areas feeling a bit muggy by Colorado standards. We expect an increase in clouds this afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over and near the mountains. Thunderstorms should be most numerous this evening, especially over and near the mountains, although spotty storms may also spread east over the plains into tonight. Thunderstorms aren’t likely to produce severe weather in most cases along and west of I-25, but stronger storms will typically have the potential to produce localized downpours of heavy rain, frequent lightning, small hail and gusty wind, and should a stronger storm interact with local burn scars flash flooding could occur. The strongest storms could briefly produce hail to the size of nickels and possibly some wind gusts to near 60 mph over the plains to the east of I-25 this evening.
Tonight: Thunderstorms will continue to drift over mainly the plains early tonight before ending, then we expect decreasing clouds through morning. Expect the air to cool more quickly tonight thanks to the storms, but it will be a bit humid over the plains. By morning, the air should have cooled into the 50s and 60s for most, although where the air is drier over the high mountain valleys and higher mountain communities the temperature may slip into the 40s .
Sunday: Partly cloudy and noticeably cooler with temperatures in the 80s for the plains, 70s for the mountains. The air will again be a bit humid over the plains, at least by Colorado standards, but that humidity will help fuel more thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Like Saturday we expect most storms to remain below severe criteria, but stronger storms will again have the potential to produce localized downpours of heavy rain, frequent lightning, small hail and gusty wind. Storms will continue to be most numerous over and near the mountains with a few storms possibly drifting over the plains as well late this afternoon or this evening into tonight.
Extended: Monday looks to remain pretty cool compared to where we’ve been recently with high temperatures mainly in the 70s and 80s . Thunderstorms will remain possible on Monday, but should be less numerous as compared to the weekend. As we move through the work week the low level moisture associated with the cold front will begin to thin out while moisture associated with the summer monsoon will probably begin to return to the area in some capacity. The air should warm some as the work week progresses, but with scattered thunderstorms expected to develop over and near the mountains most days the air shouldn’t get as hot as it was late last week. After Monday we expect high temperatures to reach the 80s and 90s for the plains with 70s to near 80 over the mountains.
