Snow is coming to the Northeast, but don’t fall for the hype

By Mary Gilbert, CNN Meteorologist

(CNN) — The first snowflakes of the season will fly in parts of the Northeast as chilly air and stormy weather finally filter into the region after weeks without them brought a historic drought and unusual fires.

But don’t expect a winter wonderland and don’t fall for the headlines and hype. This fall’s lingering unusual warmth will block any long-lasting snowy scenes unless you live on top of a mountain.

The storm that will bring the snow to the Northeast already brought it to parts of the Midwest. Chicago recorded nearly 3 inches of snow early Thursday, the city’s snowiest November day in five years, according to National Weather Service data.

Flakes were still flying but starting to slow down early Thursday afternoon elsewhere in Illinois and over parts of Indiana.

Parched areas of the Northeast have already received a round of much-needed rain while parts of Pennsylvania and New York brace for the season’s first batch of snow.

Rain ongoing in the region Thursday afternoon will gradually mix with and change over to snow for elevated areas of Pennsylvania and southern New York through the evening. This wet snow will fall overnight and could be heavy at times before it starts to taper off Friday afternoon.

Any snow will have to fall heavily in order to accumulate more than an inch or so. That’s because the recent stretch of unseasonable warmth in the Northeast has kept the ground much warmer than it should be in late November. It’s tough for snow to stick to and pile up on surfaces that aren’t cold enough.

Areas located at or above 1,500 feet in elevation are most likely to record some accumulating snow, perhaps up to half a foot in the highest elevations, according to the National Weather Service in Binghamton, New York.

Lower elevation areas will have a different problem to contend with. Any wet snow that falls could quickly melt when it reaches the warm ground and form icy patches in areas where air temperatures dip below freezing later Thursday.

This may lead to slick spots on untreated roadways, especially overnight.

Major population centers like Philadelphia and New York City will likely stay out of the winterlike fray with any precipitation falling as rain.

Snow will also impact areas outside the immediate Northeast. West Virginia’s mountains could get a some of the highest totals of the event with snow expected to continue there through Friday and into part of Saturday.

Any snow that manages to accumulate will likely quickly melt as high temperatures over the weekend will reach the 40s and 50s for much of the Appalachians and Northeast.

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