Netanyahu rides wave of euphoria over assassinations as his political fortunes turn around

Analysis by Mick Krever, CNN

Tel Aviv, Israel (CNN) — On October 7, Israeli Prime Minister’s Benjamin Netanyahu’s self-styled image as “Mister Security” seemed irrevocably shattered by the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust. The Jewish homeland and its leader had failed to protect the people. How could he possibly survive?

The polls told us as much. He had formed an extremist coalition government in November 2022 on the back of the 32 seats his Likud party secured in the 120-seat Knesset. After Hamas’ attack, a string of opinion polls suggested that were elections held, Likud would get just 17 seats, putting the government’s long-term survival in jeopardy.

Nearly a year later, Netanyahu has staged a remarkable turnaround. Though Likud would still struggle to form a government were elections held today, a brutal campaign of airstrikes in Lebanon and assassinations across the Middle East in recent weeks have buoyed the prime minister to heights unimaginable in the immediate aftermath of Hamas’ attacks almost a year ago.

A poll released Sunday by Israel’s Channel 12 showed that Likud would win 25 seats were elections to be held today, making it the largest party. Netanyahu enjoys 38% support, according to the survey.

“The regional confrontations are good for Netanyahu,” veteran pollster and analyst Dahlia Scheindlin told CNN. “They seem quite clearly to be the contributing factor to his recovery.”

Israel’s aggressive military maneuvers against its enemies, she said, have helped restored a sense of agency and strength destroyed by Hamas’ October 7 attack. The war in Gaza is popular in Israel, but it brings with it complex questions around long-term occupation, relations with the Palestinians, and most importantly for Israelis, the fact that 101 hostages are still held there.

Israel’s military attacks elsewhere are seen at home as more black and white. “It’s clear enemies of Israel,” she said, referring to those whom Israel says it is targeting. “There’s no ambiguity around this question of occupation, et cetera.”

The aggressive military campaign began in April, when an airstrike on Iran’s embassy complex in Syria killed a top commander in Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards. Israel did not comment but was widely understood to be responsible. That was followed by a July airstrike on Beirut that killed Hezbollah’s most senior military official, Fu’ad Shukr. The next day, an explosion in a Tehran government guest house killed Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Haniyeh.

Relentless bombing campaign

Earlier this month pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah in Lebanon exploded across the country, killing dozens and maiming thousands – marking a new phase in that conflict, which began when Hezbollah attacked Israel on October 8, in solidarity with Hamas and the Palestinians in Gaza. Around 60,000 civilians have since been forced from their northern Israeli homes by Hezbollah’s rocket attacks.

Israel has for weeks now operated a relentless bombing campaign across Lebanon against Hezbollah’s infrastructure and leadership. Massive airstrikes in southern Beirut have killed a string of Hezbollah leaders, including its elusive and powerful secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, as well as more than 1,000 people in Lebanon. It has also forced about 20% of the population – about 1 million people – from their homes, according to aid agencies and the Lebanese government.

The families of hostages in Gaza, meanwhile, lead the charge in accusing Netanyahu of prioritizing his political survival over the national interest – an accusation he strenuously denies.

And yet it is undeniable that at a time when Israel is waging war in Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen, the prime minister continues to devote significant attention to domestic political machinations.

On Sunday he brought a former rival, Gideon Sa’ar, into his government as a minister without portfolio. The fact that Sa’ar has no ministerial responsibilities underlines the fact that his appointment was largely political.

“When I ordered the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, we all knew that an entire nation was behind this decision,” Netanyahu said Sunday evening alongside Sa’ar. “The cohesion of the ranks is a necessary condition for us to stand firm in these testing days, and for us to achieve the goals we have set.”

Netanyahu had for weeks been intending to fire his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, in favor of Sa’ar. But that scheme drew withering criticism from national security veterans and was finally quashed when Israel escalated the war in Lebanon.

Broader political support

Nadav Shtrauchler, a political strategist who has worked closely with Netanyahu, told CNN that bringing Sa’ar into government was intended to have three effects.

First, he said, bringing in Sa’ar – a veteran right-wing politician – would give Netanyahu leverage over far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who was previously convicted for inciting terrorism. Ben-Gvir is not Netanyahu’s “cup of tea, and he’s not reliable,” Shtrauchler said.

Second, Sa’ar could help protect Netanyahu from the ultra-Orthodox parties who have the power to bring down the government. Those parties – with whom Sa’ar is said to be close – want to pass a law exempting ultra-Orthodox men from mandatory military service, a change that would threaten Netanyahu’s coalition. The defense minister opposes the move, but Netanyahu “thinks that Gideon Sa’ar can be with him and soften Gallant,” Shtrauchler said.

Finally, he told CNN, broader political support is important as the war with Hezbollah escalates, and the possibility of a ground invasion looms.

It is of course impossible to say to what degree political considerations are playing into Netanyahu’s decision to escalate the war in Lebanon, though returning the Israeli civilians to their homes in the north is a real policy imperative.

“It wouldn’t surprise me if part of one of his considerations was so that Israelis feel like – after a year of having been through this horrible shock and trauma and surprise – that they have responded,” Scheindlin, the pollster and analyst, said. “That makes Israelis feel that they have a kind of catharsis, a sort of closure.”

Netanyahu’s most viable rival has long been Benny Gantz, a military heavyweight who for years served as Israel Defense Forces’ chief of the general staff, with his party polling second in recent opinion polls. His backing for Israel’s escalating attacks around the region underlines the degree to which Netanyahu has neutered his opposition.

“I would like to congratulate the political echelon, led by the prime minister and the minister of defense, who made the decision on the action in Lebanon,” Gantz said on Sunday. “Better late than never.”

Netanyahu is the beneficiary. But it is undeniable that a deep depression affects this country, despite a wave of euphoria in the wake of Nasrallah’s assassination that saw TV reporters toasting his death on national television.

“There’s no real joy in Israel now,” Scheindlin said. “Even a sense of satisfaction for the moment or even a momentary euphoria – nothing’s going to take away the reality that this is a very somber time, especially because of the hostages.”

Eugenia Yosef and Dana Karni contributed reporting.

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