Higher-for-longer: How 2026’s mortgage rates may shape your homebuying plan

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If you’ve been waiting for mortgage rates to drop significantly, 2026 may not bring major relief — but there is good news. Zonda’s economists forecast that rates will stay in the low-6% range for most of 2026.

That’s higher than the ultra-low rates of 2020–2021, but lower than the 7%+ levels that made headlines in 2023 and parts of 2024, NewHomeSource reports.

This “higher-for-longer” environment has become one of the defining factors shaping buyer behavior.

Why Rates Are Staying Elevated

Mortgage rates today reflect more than just the Federal Reserve’s policy rate. According to the report, they’re also affected by:

• Sticky inflation
• High Treasury issuance
• A large federal deficit
• Investor sentiment and demand for mortgage-backed securities

These forces have kept rates from moving lower, even as economic growth has slowed.

Small rate drops matter — a lot

Even if rates remain in the low-6% range, tiny movements could open the door for many buyers.

A chart in the report shows that dropping rates from 6.25% to 6.0% would allow 2.1 million more households to qualify for the median-priced home.

That means even modest declines — 0.5%,0.25%, or even 0.125% — can shift affordability in meaningful ways.

What Buyers Can Do in a Higher-for-Longer Market

1. Consider new construction

Builders often offer rate buydowns that can drop your effective rate into the 5s or even high-4s — something rarely available in resale.

2. Shop lenders aggressively

Rate spreads between lenders can be wide. Two lenders quoting 6.25% vs. 5.875% could determine whether you qualify.

3. Look for a small dip — and act fast

If rates ease slightly this year — or even for a week — your buying window may open unexpectedly.

Bottom Line

Rates aren’t expected to plunge in 2026, but they don’t need to. Even small shifts could dramatically increase affordability and bring more buyers back into the market. Staying ready — and watching the numbers closely — will help you take advantage of the right moment.

This story was produced by NewHomeSource and reviewed and distributed by Stacker.