CNN poll: 59% of Americans disapprove of Iran strikes and most think a long-term conflict is likely

By Jennifer Agiesta, Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN

(CNN) — Nearly 6 in 10 Americans disapprove of the US decision to take military action in Iran, as most say a long-term military conflict between the two nations is likely, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

The poll, fielded shortly after US and Israeli attacks launched the war with Iran, finds majorities express doubts about President Donald Trump’s handling of the situation. Most say they lack trust in Trump to make the right decisions about US use of force in Iran, with 60% saying they do not think he has a clear plan for handling the situation and 62% saying he should get congressional approval for any further military action.

Just over a quarter (27%) feel that the US made enough of an effort at diplomacy with Iran before using military force, with 39% saying the US did not try hard enough at diplomacy first and 33% unsure.

The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday, after news reports that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, had died in the attacks and largely before reports emerged of the deaths of six US troops.

Overall, 59% of Americans disapprove of the initial decision to strike Iran, with 41% approving. Strong disapproval (31%) roughly doubles strong approval (16%). A marginally higher share (44%) say they favor the US trying to overthrow the Iranian government, with 56% opposed to that.

Just 12%, though, would favor sending US ground troops into Iran, while 60% would oppose it and 28% are unsure.

A majority, 56%, say they see long-term military conflict between the US and Iran as at least somewhat likely, including 24% who see that as a very likely outcome. Asked by CNN on Monday how long the war might last, Trump said, “I don’t want to see it go on too long. I always thought it would be four weeks. And we’re a little ahead of schedule.”

A separate CNN poll conducted in January found the vast majority of Americans viewed Iran as unfriendly or an enemy of the US (89% felt that way). In CNN’s polling dating to 2000, Iran has consistently been viewed as unfriendly or an enemy by more than 7 in 10 Americans.

But the new poll suggests few see this military action as likely to reduce the risk the US faces from Iran. Most, 54%, say Iran will become more of a threat to the US as a result of this military action, with just 28% saying the strikes will make Iran less of a threat. Even among those who approve of the military action overall, roughly 40% are unconvinced it will lessen the threat from Iran.

The poll’s findings closely track views last summer in a CNN poll conducted after the US launched airstrikes in Iran aimed at reducing the country’s nuclear capabilities. Shifts in overall opinion since then are small, but generally all tilt away from supporting military action against Iran.

Republicans back latest Iran strikes, with a MAGA vs. non-MAGA split

Republicans are far more likely than independents or Democrats to approve of the weekend’s military action (77% of Republicans approve, compared with 32% of independents and 18% of Democrats) and to see it as likely to reduce the threat the US faces from Iran (58% of Republicans feel that way vs. 21% of independents and 9% of Democrats). An 83% majority of Republicans also say Trump has a clear plan for handling the situation, while broad majorities of independents (70%) and Democrats (88%) doubt he does.

Republicans are less unified on two questions. They are about evenly split over whether this action is likely to lead to a long-term military conflict with Iran (44% say it is at least somewhat likely, 44% that it is not), and are more likely to say they oppose (38%) sending ground troops to Iran or that they’re unsure about the prospect (35%) than they are to say they support such an effort (27%). Still, that marks an 11-point increase in support among Republicans for ground troops in Iran compared with last year.

Within the Republican Party, there is a sharp divide between those who say they consider themselves part of the “Make America Great Again” movement and those who do not, a division that appears largely linked to trust in the president. MAGA Republicans are 30 points more likely than non-MAGA Republicans to say they strongly approve of the decision to take military action, 34 points likelier to say it will reduce the threat Iran poses to the US and nearly 50 points more likely to say they have a great deal of trust in Trump to make the right decisions about US use of force in Iran.

The initial support for military action among Trump’s base stands in contrast to opinions among the larger public. Majorities disapprove across most major demographic subgroups, including both men and women, White, Black and Latino adults, and all age groups.

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The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS on February 28 and March 1. Interviews with 1,004 adults nationwide were conducted by text message. People interviewed for the poll are members of the nationally representative SSRS Text Message Panel. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.