2024 NFL playoff picture: Who’s clinched and who is still fighting to reach the postseason after Week 17

By Jamie Barton, CNN

(CNN) — With just one week remaining in the NFL regular season, the playoff picture is becoming ever clearer.

Week 17 saw three more teams clinch their postseason spots, and two fall out of contention. Five teams will have to suffer nail-biting final games, including one which really should have had it all wrapped up by now.

Here is everything you need to know heading into the final weekend.

Who’s definitely in?

So far, 12 teams across the two conferences have secured a playoff berth.

Leading the way are reigning back-to-back Super Bowl champions the Kansas City Chiefs, and the only team to have beaten them this season, the Buffalo Bills, who both clinched all the way back in Week 13.

It was a very merry Christmas for the Chiefs, who secured the AFC No. 1 seed last Wednesday with a 29-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Last week also saw the Los Angeles Chargers claim the AFC’s sixth playoff spot with a 40-7 rout of the New England Patriots. Justin Herbert was at the center of the action, throwing three touchdown passes to join Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson as the only NFL players in history to record 3,000-plus passing yards and 20-plus TD passes in each of their first five seasons.

In the NFC, wins for both the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings set up a must-see Week 18 clash with the winner claiming the No. 1 seed, a playoff bye and the NFC North crown, and the loser receiving the No. 5 seed.

Elsewhere in the conference, the Washington Commanders clinched a playoff spot for the first time since 2020 thanks to some overtime heroics from Jayden Daniels in a 30-24 win over the Atlanta Falcons – quite possibly the most impactful game of the week with regards to the playoff spots.

Joining them are the Los Angeles Rams, who struggled to score against the Arizona Cardinals but emerged 13-9 winners on Saturday night. Wins for the Commanders, Bills, Cincinnati Bengals and Minnesota Vikings ensured a strength of victory tiebreaker for the Rams over the Seattle Seahawks.

Who’s still in the mix?

Somehow, Denver still hasn’t secured its playoff spot. A win over the Colts on December 15 put the Broncos at 9-5 on the year, but subsequent losses to the Chargers and then the Bengals on Saturday mean they still need a win to guarantee a spot.

The three-time Super Bowl champions will welcome the Chiefs on the final day – a tough prospect on paper but likely a far easier one on grass, with Kansas City reportedly planning to rest its starters having already clinched the No. 1 seed. NFL’s playoff tracker still gives 9-7 Denver an 83% chance of making the postseason.

Nonetheless, there are two 8-8 teams looking to capitalize on a Broncos slip up. The Miami Dolphins comfortably beat the Cleveland Browns 20-3 on Sunday to give themselves a 12% chance. They face the New York Jets this Sunday.

The Bengals are the other team in contention, but given that Miami has won more games against AFC opposition, Cincinnati can only make the playoffs if it beats Pittsburgh on Saturday and the Broncos and Dolphins both lose on Sunday, a chance rated at just 6%.

In the NFC, there are just two teams in contention. The Falcons were slight favorites to make the playoffs ahead of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before Week 17, but their OT loss to the Commanders has seen their chances drop to just 11%. It is likely that the introduction of rookie Michael Penix Jr. to replace Kirk Cousins came just a little too late for Atlanta.

The beneficiaries are the Bucs, who beat the Carolina Panthers 48-14 to move to 9-7 and an 89% chance of a playoff berth. Nonetheless, Tampa Bay has made a habit of losing straight after important wins this season, so Bucs fans will likely still be biting their nails come Sunday afternoon.

Who’s out?

Week 17 saw two teams drop out of contention. In the AFC, the Indianapolis Colts saw their chances go from 15% to 0% with a shock 45-33 loss to the New York Giants. They are out, along with the Jets, Las Vegas Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Browns, Tennessee Titans and Patriots.

In the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks managed to win a no-TD game against the Chicago Bears on Thursday night, but it was not enough due to other scores going against them. They join the Dallas Cowboys, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints, Bears, Panthers and Giants as the teams already looking ahead to next season.

Full playoff seedings after Week 17

AFC

1) Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) – clinched

2) Buffalo Bills (13-3) – clinched

3) Baltimore Ravens (11-5) – clinched

4) Houston Texans (9-7) – clinched

5) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) – clinched

6) Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) – clinched

7) Denver Broncos (9-7)

On the outside

8) Miami Dolphins (8-8)

9) Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)

Eliminated

10) Indianapolis Colts (7-9)

11) New York Jets (4-12)

12) Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)

13) Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)

14) Cleveland Browns (3-13)

15) Tennessee Titans (3-13)

16) New England Patriots (3-13)

NFC

1) Detroit Lions (14-2) – clinched

2) Philadelphia Eagles (13-3) – clinched

3) Los Angeles Rams (10-6) – clinched

4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)

5) Minnesota Vikings (14-2) – clinched

6) Washington Commanders (11-5) – clinched

7) Green Bay Packers (11-5) – clinched

On the outside

9) Atlanta Falcons (8-8)

Eliminated

8) Seattle Seahawks (9-7)

10) Dallas Cowboys (7-9)

11) Arizona Cardinals (7-9)

12) San Francisco 49ers (6-10)

13) New Orleans Saints (5-11)

14) Chicago Bears (4-12)

15) Carolina Panthers (4-12)

16) New York Giants (3-13)

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