Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin will win reelection in Wisconsin, CNN projects

By Simone Pathe, CNN

(CNN) — Sen. Tammy Baldwin will win reelection in Wisconsin, CNN projects, in a victory for Senate Democrats trying to defend the so-called blue wall states despite losing them at the presidential level and having already lost their majority in the chamber.

Baldwin is projected defeat Republican Eric Hovde in a race that attracted a late flurry of attention after initially appearing less competitive than a few other states where Democrats were on defense.

Baldwin will be returning for a third term to a dramatically shifted Senate. Republicans are currently projected to control 52 seats next year, having flipped West Virginia, Ohio and Montana. CNN has not yet projected the other “blue wall” Senate races – in Pennsylvania and Michigan – as of Wednesday afternoon.

Republicans came home late to Hovde, but Democrats had worked to define him early, seizing on some of his controversial comments to paint him as a California banker who didn’t have Wisconsin voters’ best interest at heart. (The CEO of Sunwest Bank owns a home in Laguna Beach, California, but was born and raised in the Badger State.) Democrats also leaned into the issue of abortion to pick up nontraditional Democratic voters.

Hovde, who’s also CEO of a prominent Madison-based development company bearing his name, poured millions of dollars into his campaign and had significant outside firepower from GOP groups. But Baldwin – a well-known incumbent first elected to the Senate in 2012 after seven terms in the House – raised substantial money that also allowed her to reserve advertising time at the more favorable candidate rate.

Her campaign attacked Hovde, for example, for saying that most nursing home patients aren’t in a condition to vote, while touting her work in the Senate, including efforts to pass the PACT Act, which expands health care benefits for veterans exposed to burn pits.

The two-term incumbent had experience courting ticket-splitters – she won her previous reelection in 2018 after former President Donald Trump had carried Wisconsin two years earlier. But Hovde posed a tougher challenge than her opponent from six years ago. Baldwin made an effort to travel to rural and conservative parts of the state to try to narrow Hovde’s margins, even in places where Democrats were likely to lose. She also scored the endorsement of the Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation, a notable get for a Democrat running statewide.

For much of the race, Hovde had a defensive posture on air responding to Democratic attacks – trying to lay out his Wisconsin roots or call out Baldwin’s spots for being “nasty.” But the GOP nominee – whose campaign underwent an early fall shake-up – also tried to nationalize the race, attempting to tie Baldwin to President Joe Biden and then Vice President Kamala Harris on inflation and the border.

And in the final stretch, Hovde and his GOP allies accused Baldwin, the first out gay senator, of a conflict of interest because her partner of six years is a financial adviser for high-end clients. The charge, which Baldwin strongly denies, lacks proof. Republicans also attacked her over transgender issues, trying to paint the senator as too liberal for the state. Baldwin took to the airwaves to say that Hovde was “lying” and that he was “not for us.”

While those GOP lines of attack may have helped Hovde consolidate the base with which he was lagging for much of the race, it wasn’t enough to win over the general electorate.

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