Iowa entrance poll: Most GOP caucusgoers don’t accept Biden’s 2020 win, say a conviction wouldn’t make Trump unfit for office

By Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN

(CNN) — Most Iowa GOP caucusgoers refuse to accept President Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory and say they would view former President Donald Trump, whom CNN projected will win the caucuses Monday night, as fit for office even if convicted of a crime, according to CNN’s entrance poll for the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses.

Trump’s victory highlights his strength among key groups that form the bulk of the GOP electorate, according to the entrance poll. Roughly half of Iowa caucusgoers described themselves as “very conservative,” and nearly half identified as part of the MAGA movement, referring to the “Make America Great Again” slogan popularized by Trump in 2016. Broad majorities in both of those groups broke for Trump, as did the lion’s share of White evangelicals and those age 65 and older.

The results also highlight the stark educational divide that has become a defining feature of the GOP electorate. While Trump held a commanding lead among Iowa caucusgoers without college degrees, college graduates were more closely divided among Trump, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.  

Entrance polls are a valuable tool to help understand caucusgoers’ demographic profile and political views. Like all surveys, however, entrance polls are estimates, not precise measurements of the electorate. That’s particularly true for the preliminary set of entrance poll numbers, which haven’t yet been weighted to match the final results of the caucus. But the results provide a glimpse of the type of voters turning out to participate in the first contest of the 2024 campaign.

The results of the entrance poll mark a shift in the Republican electoral landscape from the 2016 Iowa caucuses, when White evangelicals and very conservative votes broke in favor of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz over Trump. (Cruz went on to win the state that year but lost the nomination to Trump.)

Trump’s strength with the Iowa electorate is also evident in caucusgoers’ response to his previous election loss and the criminal charges he faces. About two-thirds said they do not believe that Biden’s victory over Trump more than three years ago was legitimate. There is no evidence of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election. More than 6 in 10 said that they would consider Trump fit for the presidency if he were to be convicted of a crime, with only about one-third saying they wouldn’t see him as fit in that circumstance.

Among the minority of caucusgoers who said Trump would be unfit for the presidency if convicted, about half backed Haley on Monday, with about one-third supporting DeSantis.

Trump’s support in Iowa has been locked in for some time, the entrance poll suggests, while his rivals have seen more recent gains. About 80% of Trump’s supporters said they made their decision to back him prior to this month. By contrast, a majority of Haley’s supporters said they made their decision sometime in January, as did roughly half of DeSantis’ backers.

Asked which of four personal qualities mattered most to them in a candidate, about 4 in 10 caucusgoers said they wanted to see a candidate who shared their values and about 3 in 10 that they wanted someone would fight for people like them, with fewer looking for a candidate who had the right temperament or could defeat Biden. While voters’ decision-making processes are too complicated to be described by a single question, the divide in responses highlights the very different appeals that Trump, DeSantis and Haley offer to their respective supporters. 

Roughly half of Trump supporters said they were looking for a candidate who would fight for people like them, with about one-third prioritizing a candidate who shared their values, and few attributing their decision to Trump’s temperament or perceived electability. A wide majority of DeSantis supporters, by contrast, said they most wanted to see a candidate who shared their values. And Haley supporters were more divided: about 37% said they prioritized temperament, 27% a candidate who shared their values, and 24% someone who could defeat Biden, with few looking for a fighter on their behalf.

About 38% of all GOP caucusgoers called the economy their top concern out of a list of four issues, with about one-third citing immigration, about one-eighth citing abortion, and roughly another one-eighth picking foreign policy. Most GOP caucusgoers – about 6 in 10 – said they’d favor a federal law banning most or all abortions nationwide, the entrance poll also finds. 

The entrance poll for Iowa’s Republican presidential caucus was conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. It includes 1,628 interviews with Republican caucus participants across 45 different caucus locations. Results for the full sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.0 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups.  

This story has been updated with additional information.

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