Why U.S. births are declining and how it could affect Colorado long-term

COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. (KRDO) -- Months into the Covid-19 pandemic, with couples locked up together in quarantine, some were predicting a “baby boom” in 2021. It looks more like the U.S. will see a “baby bust” instead and it could affect all of us.

Brookings Institute, a D.C. non-profit that researches societal issues, says in one of its latest reports that the U.S. will likely see 300,000 to 500,000 fewer births in the U.S. in 2021.

It’s a prediction that may have weight.

ModernFertility.com surveyed 4,000 people, 30 percent said they were changing their family planning because of Covid-19. Of those who said they were changing their plans, almost half (48 percent) decided to delay having kids, and 26 percent became unsure about having kids at all.

According to Phillip Cohen, a sociologist at the University of Maryland, his findings, published with the Center For Open Science, show that Google searches regarding contraception and pregnancy declined drastically in 2020.

Two of the most populous states in the country, Florida and California, showed birth rates in 2020 well below what was expected. 

“What we, unsurprisingly, see is that when there are depressions, when there are recessions, when there are economic downturns, families often make choices to have fewer children or no children,” said Jennifer Reich, professor of sociology at UC Denver.

"Recessions, like in 2008, we saw a decline in the birth rate, quite dramatically actually. I can tell you in higher education we've been talking about the cliff effect that's coming in 2025 based on the declining birth rates from the 2008 recession. That these have impacted school enrollments, the number of elementary schools that will remain open, everyone is looking at these numbers that came out of the 2008 recession and everyone is thinking that this might be worse,” she said.

Reich isn’t the slightest bit surprised by this likely baby bust. She says the long-term effects of a declining birthrate would affect all of us, including the economy.

“Young people are big spenders and their parents spend money to accommodate family life. So we can see this affecting consumer patterns from cars to houses to travel to furniture to all sorts of things that families with children spend money on,” she said.

"As people get older, what does it mean in your community that you have seniors who don't have adult children to care for them. We can ask questions about what this means when we don't have enough people paying into Social Security long-term because you have declining birthrates and that can affect our social safety net programs.”

But this concern isn’t new. According to the CDC, birth rates, with little exception, have been on the decline since the 2008 recession. In fact, 2019 had the lowest number of births since 1985.

By 2034, Americans over the age 65 will outnumber those under 18 for the first time.

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 "Even people who are like, a month ago, we're all 'baby fever,' are now 'we should just wait. It doesn't make sense,’” said Sharon Kuca, a Colorado Springs mother of one who is choosing to wait to have her second child.

"I would just really prefer to get vaccinated,” she said.

“ I’m kinda in the group that's going to get vaccinated last. I work from home, I'm a woman in my thirties, and generally healthy ... I'd rather wait until the summer to get vaccinated and kinda wait and see how things are panning out."

Kuca’s husband, Robbie Unsell, supports his wife’s decision 100 percent.

"I worry a lot about Sharon. That was probably my primary concern during the first pregnancy was her overall health,” he said. If we can mitigate that risk as much as possible, that seems like the most reasonable thing to do."

However, Kuca and Unsell may be a minority of couples who feel this way in Colorado. While the early national statistics don’t show promising birth trends for 2021, Colorado doesn’t appear to be showing much of a decline.

Local UC Health birth stats from the last two Decembers here in Colorado Springs are almost exactly the same: 358 in December, 2020 - 359 babies in December, 2019.

And the decrease, overall from 2019 to 2020 was very minimal:

A total of 4,684 babies were born at UCHealth Memorial North and UCHealth Memorial Central in 2019. In 2020, that number was 4,550.

Early provisional state birth numbers from 2020 appear to show just a slight decline in births in Colorado, about 1,400 fewer babies than in 2019.

2019 births statewide: 62,875
2020 births statewide: 61,482

“Here at Denver Health, we have not seen any changes from this time a year ago. Our birth numbers have held steady over the last several months,” said Kate Adkens, an OBGYN at Denver Health.

Adkens helps deliver roughly 50 babies per month for Denver Health.

“I've been advising my patients that life goes on during the pandemic,” said Adkens, who adds that moms-to-be should feel safe having a baby in 2021.

"We've grown quite accustomed to taking care of moms with Covid over the last year. Many of those moms are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic, in which case we provide supportive measures and take precautions to make sure they're not transmitting,” she said.

And of course many pregnant women or mothers-to-be are wondering about Covid vaccine risks. Denver Health says they have confidence that all the currently approved Covid-19 vaccines are safe for pregnant moms and newly delivered babies.

"We have a population of pregnant healthcare workers who have received the vaccine and we have not seen any severe adverse events in pregnant moms or newly delivered babies from moms who have received the vaccine, which is really encouraging,” said Adkens.

It’s recommended that couples consult with their primary doctor before family planning during the pandemic. It’s also important for mothers-to-be to have a similar consultation before getting a Covid-19 vaccine to track any potential side-effects for high-risk patients.