State predicts quieter fire season for 2019
Scars from 2018 have communities across the state praying they won’t get burned again this fire season.
Of the top 20 largest fires in state history, 5 of them broke out last year.
The Spring Creek fire in Huerfano County burned 108,045 acres, making it Colorado’s second largest ever.
The 416 fire near Durango burned 54,129 acres and ranks #6 on the list.
A few months prior to that, the Mile Marker 117 fire in Southern El Paso County burned 42,000 acres, earning it a spot at #11.
In all, last year’s fires claimed more than a quarter of a million acres.
Governor Jared Polis and state fire officials gathered last week to announce the current statewide fire outlook, and it’s good news.
They predict an “average to below average season,” based primarily on the amount of snow the state received over the winter and the current pattern of wet weather that is expected to continue.
“The forecast right now for the next 90-120 days is that we will have above average moisture and below average temperatures,” said Mike Morgan, the Director of Coloradio Division of Fire Prevention and Control.
CSFD Battalion Chief Justin White, an executive with the city’s wildfire suppression program, said the forecast definitely puts him a little more at ease this time of year.
He points out that historically, the worst fires in Southern Colorado have all broken out in June, including the Waldo Canyon, Black Forest, and Hayman fires.
White agrees the conditions in 2019 are far less dangerous than in 2018, although the Colorado Springs area doesn’t benefit nearly as much from the winter snow.
“We’re obviously in a rain shadow here, so we don’t get the moisture that the mountains get,” he explains, “we didn’t get the snowpack that the mountains usually get, but at the same time, we’ve gotten plenty of rain, so the trees are really soaking it up now.”
In addition to reducing the risk of fires, the wetter weather has also allowed for many more controlled burns early in the season to minimize wildfires.
In 2018, that was nearly impossible due to the danger.
Morgan says, “We did very little to zero fire mitigation work with fire on the landscape, because the conditions were such that if we would have done it, we couldn’t have kept control of it.”
And while there is plenty of green on the ground now, White says things can change very quickly.
“Within a week, two weeks, we could be right back into 2018. Fuel moistures in the grasses start changing first, drying those out, and then it moves on to the bigger plants,” he said.
Regardless of the outlook, White says his teams train and prepare as if another Waldo Canyon is just over the horizon, because that’s the mentality they maintain.
Instead of wondering if this wil be the year, they expect the next big one to break out at any time.
Even in an average year, state officials predict an average of 6,000 fires to break out across the state, which will likely keep crews plenty busy over the next few months.
