How El Nio could impact ski resorts this winter

Snowier weather is possible this winter in southern Colorado! However, some ski resorts could get more snow than others. I researched this longer-term forecast and its possible impacts.

For many of us, snow season is the most wonderful time of the year. People we’ve talked to in years past say winter in Colorado is simply the best. An El Niño pattern this winter could bring more snow to southern Colorado in the lower elevations, but not all resorts could get above-average snow.

With an El Niño trend, storms track farther to the south. This can create more active and stormier weather for the southern states. It’s normally drier and warmer to our north. In an El Niño pattern, the the southern mountains tend to see more snow compared to resorts in northern Colorado. Meanwhile, the southwest mountains and the San Juans fall somewhere in the middle. Bottom line, resorts like Wolf Creek, Telluride and Monarch have a bit of a better chance for more snow compared to the I-70 communities. Why? Well, when storm systems move through New Mexico, winds moving counterclockwise around an low pressure system create an “upsloping” effect here in southern Colorado. As the air butts up against the southern mountains, the air cools, condenses and produces precipitation.

I analyzed the data with a meteorologist from the National Weather Service. This is what Larry Walrod told me about the snow on the Sangres last year. That’s when we had a La Niña cycle.

“They saw almost no precipitation,” said meteorologist Larry Walrod. “Totals were really low. and there were really no big storms to, you know, really load the snow up there on the slopes.”

A note: it’s very difficult to make long-term forecasts. It’s likely we’ll see more snow (at least, relatively) in the second half of winter versus the first. These projections of mountain snow could change. Stick with us.

Lastly, it’s very possible that the spring fire — which impacted Huerfano and Costilla Counties this summer — could have been less extreme had we seen more snow last winter. More precipitation this winter could help mitigate fire danger next spring and summer. We’ll keep you ahead of the storms.