Early presidential polls: Why they matter

Four months ago Donald Trump launched his presidential campaign. All through the summer and into the early fall the bombastic businessman was the clear frontrunner for the GOP nomination.

However, this week Trump fell out of the lead in Iowa. Friday, a Bloomberg / Des Moines Register poll showed Ben Carson surging past Trump by nine points.

Colorado College political science professor, Bob Loevy, says Iowa is unique, famous for producing weird results.

“Carson, in Iowa, has done a good job of campaigning personally in the state and is saying things voters want to hear. “That’s manifesting itself in high poll results,” Loevy said.

Nationally, Trump still leads Carson and the rest of the field but Loevy believes winning Iowa is critical to Trump’s hopes.

“He needs to be concerned because an outsider candidate like Trump needs to do very well in the process.”

On the other side, Hillary Clinton is widening her lead in the corn state over rival Bernie Sanders. According to a new Quinnipiac poll, Clinton now leads Sanders by 11 points.

“Polls tell very little,” Loevy said, “but what we know is that voters are affected by them,” Loevy said. “Polls are important not just because they measure public opinion, but because voters read the polls and they like to go with the winner.”

As the GOP primary process goes deeper, Loevy expects a Republican candidate with experience as a governor or senator to be the party’s nominee.