Udall-Gardner race too close to call; Campaign could determine balance of power in Senate

Incumbent Democrat Mark Udall and Republican challenger Cory Gardner are fighting to win a precious seat that will no doubt play a large role in which party controls the U.S. Senate at the beginning of next year.

Observers have consistently over the past four to six years looked at Colorado as a bellweather state, trying to get a sense of where the nation is going. Colorado could very well be the state people are looking to figure out if the Senate is going to be in Republican or Democratic hands in 2015.

President Obama won Colorado twice in his victorious path to the White House. But Mr. Obama is now in the middle of his second term and with approval numbers in the low 40s, it might be difficult for Democrats to hold their seats this fall.

“You have an unpopular president,” UCCS political science professor Josh Dunn said. “His signature domestic achievement is deeply unpopular, it’s difficult for him to go out and campaign for Democratic candidates because it reminds them voters are unhappy with his performance. Those things are dragging Democrats down across the country.”

Two latest polls put this race very close.

A CBS News – New York Times poll shows Udall ahead by a point 47-46. An NBC News – Marist survey shows Gardner holding the narrowest of leads 46-45. Both polls are well within the margin of error.

Dunn knows it will be tight, but if he were a betting man a little more than a week out he’d rather be the challenger than the incumbent.

“I think that right now Cory Gardner is going to win the election,” Dunn said. “Things could change between now and Election Day, but things are trending in his favor.”

Dunn believes the Denver Post Endorsement of Gardner could prove crucial to the outcome.