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COVID models: 1% of all Coloradans currently infectious

COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. (KRDO) -- COVID-19 may feel like a thing of the past, but state numbers say otherwise.

According to the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, the positivity rate for COVID-19 tests are on the rise and hospitalizations have been on the rise since April.

Compared to this time last year, COVID numbers are significantly higher. On the 4th of July 2021, there were 27 new positive cases for COVID according to the El Paso County Health Department. As of June 28 of this year, 114 new people tested positive for the virus.

The positivity rate throughout the state of Colorado currently sits at more than 15%. Meanwhile, data shows that from April to June the number of COVID hospitalizations in Colorado multiplied by four.

According to models from CU Boulder, "the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection is high in Colorado, with more than 1% of the population currently infectious."

On the other hand, state models show us the most recent surge might already be over. Infections and hospitalizations are expected to decline over the next few weeks.

According to both state and local numbers, 13 Investigates is already starting to see this play out. In the last two weeks, the daily rolling averages for new positive tests for COVID in El Paso County went down by nearly fifty cases.

“The modeling projections, as well as declines in recent cases and hospitalizations, have me feeling optimistic about the coming weeks,” said Dr. Rachel Herlihy, state epidemiologist, on June 24. “While the number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 in Colorado is higher than 300, we are aligned with May projections and believe we are beginning to come down from the current wave. We will continue to monitor trends as increased transmission may occur if new variants emerge or as we enter the typical respiratory virus season later this fall.” 

Despite the optimism, the authors of the CU Boulder models say there are considerable uncertainties surrounding the new Omicron Subvariants currently infecting people in Colorado.

In addition to the current subvariants, a brand new variant could significantly impact their models.

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Dan Beedie

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