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Colorado’s epidemic curve declining, signaling Omicron peak may be over

EL PASO COUNTY, Colo. (KRDO) - A new statewide modeling report from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment and Colorado School of Public Health suggests Colorado's COVID-19 epidemic curve is declining, and will continue to decline over the next few weeks. But, we're not out of the woods quite yet, as Omicron infection remains at high levels.

El Paso County Public Health also confirms we are seeing a significant decreasing pattern in case numbers locally.

"We think that we peaked on January 15, which was the highest single day incidence so far," said Fadi Youkhana, an Epidemiologist for EPCPH's Office of Analytics and Data. "We were averaging about 1,800 cases on January 15. That's for our seven day average daily cases. Right now, we're averaging about 1,200.”

This trend should continue into February, but it will be gradual, considering the spike in omicron cases was record-breaking. Colorado COVID-19 Modeling Group estimates that one in 19 Coloradans is currently infectious. The group also estimates Omicron has infected roughly 42 percent of the Colorado population to date. By late-February, they estimate that this will increase to 65 percent, meaning more people will get sick over the next few weeks.

"One of the side effects of the rise and the curve, is it was so drastic and it reached such high levels, that coming down from it and establishing previous levels will take some time," said Youkhana. "I do want to mention, that we are trending in the right direction, but we're still seeing 1,200 cases a day. That's an incredible number to say out loud."

Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment says immunity to omicron is high and rising, and their modeling estimates that 80 percent of the state population will be immune to omicron by mid-February. But that doesn't mean the world will go back life as we knew it pre-pandemic, especially if a new variant pops up.

"We've heard about herd immunity from the very beginning," said Youkhana. It's sort of a moving line, because every time you have a new variant, it changes the calculation and every time you have a prolonged period, it changes the calculation. Herd immunity is not a static number that you establish at the very beginning, and then you chase it all the way through."

There are two factors that go into population immunity: those who are vaccinated and those who have been infected, and neither immunity lasts forever.

"Those two together play a role in an overall population health, and even though they both play together, evidence has shown that they both wane over time," said Youkhana. "So it's not a one-time thing that if you get infected or you get vaccinated, you're done. The longer that you are removed from the event, the waning protection occurs."

Despite the promising news that the worst may be over with the omicron wave, the overall message from health experts continues: do not let your guard down.

“It is encouraging to see this modeling report suggest we have moved beyond the peak of our omicron surge, and that we should continue to see declining COVID-19 transmission in Colorado in the coming weeks,” said Dr. Rachel Herlihy, state epidemiologist. “There are still high levels of COVID-19 circulating in the state, so we ask Coloradans to remain cautious and continue to follow public health guidance to help protect themselves and others — get vaccinated, get a third dose as soon as it is time, wear a mask in public, and avoid large gatherings. Together we can work to ensure case rates continue to decrease in Colorado.”

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Mallory Anderson



  1. And look…they called it an epidemic…which of course is what it has been all along. The only things that changed it were lockdowns…mandates and the “jab” and crooked politicians and Fraudci. Have at it the”other side”…sticks and stones…lol

  2. This is good news. It’s not yet the same everywhere, but hopefully it does mean the pandemic is really on the decline, despite the obstructionism of the small minority of self-proclaimed experts.

    1. “…despite the obstructionism of the small minority of self-proclaimed experts.”
      Please elaborate on who is being obstructive.

      1. People who refuse vaccination, because it indirectly affects everyone in the population one way or another. And those who claim to be experts and yet promote theories conflicting with both scientific evidence and established experts in their respective fields.

        1. How does me not being vaccinated affect you? It doesn’t. I refused based on my doctors advice in accordance with scientific data. Also in accordance with the freedoms granted to me by this great country.
          See the false narrative is you have to be vaccinated. Fauci said if 60-70% get the shot everything would change. Well we hit those goals then find out it made no difference at all. The numbers are the same now as they were before the shot. You keep citing scientific evidence yet do not acknowledge the scientific data staring you in the face. How ignorant is that? So with you it has nothing to do with actual scientific data. Just a superiority complex that because you got the shot it makes you a better more intelligent person. That is arrogant. See I will admit that there are many who need the shot. Also that there an many who do not. I don’t make ignorant decisions but well informed decisions, but you wont/can’t see that or even if you do you would never acknowledge it. Again the ignorance and superiority complex. If the shot was so effective then why is everyone vaccinated or not getting Omicron right now. I have always tried to respect you but you show little to no respect for anyone else. Again the superiority complex. I watched you do this while Trump was president with things he did yet Biden does the same or worse and all the sudden it is all acceptable. I really have tried to understand you and allow you the lat(i)tude to express yourself and hopefully read and try to understand others who don’t have the same viewpoint. But again in the face of overwhelming scientific data you berate others with your superiority complex. Different is not bad. Diversity is the beauty of America and freedom is the cornerstone of this country.

          1. Thank you Viral…that comment to Check in and of itself hit the target right in the bullseye. I know in the past I have been a bit course in my comments to others and did apologize to Check hoping we could some day have civil discourse and engage in a conversation intended for us to maybe understand each others viewpoints at some point in time…but alas. Let freedom ring!

          2. You (for example) not being vaccinated affects all those around you because you are far more likely to become infected that I am (for example), and in turn you are therefore far more likely to pâss the infection on to others than I am. So you are statistically a much greater contributor to the spread of the Covid virus than I am, and it’s because of the many people like you that it’s more difficult for all of us to reach herd immunity. You are also much more likely to unwittingly spread the infection to someone with a compromised immune system, and indirectly be the cause of their death. It’s very simple math that seems to escape the great minds of many people here.

          3. And I have pointed out many times that Dr. Fauci, like all reputable scientists, learns from changes in new data. He make the best educated decision based on available data at any given time, but modifies his recommendations as he learns from the changes around him. He’s not perfect, but he’s far better at what he does than either you or me.

          4. RC, might I inquire, If unvaccinated people are,
            “far more likely to become infected that I am (for example), and in turn you are therefore far more likely to pâss the infection on to others than I am. So you are statistically a much greater contributor to the spread of the Covid virus than I am,”
            How are they not getting herd immunity from contracting the virus, or are we to ignore over 1.4 to 2.4 million years of human evolution and natural selection?
            If a person has a compromised immune system (susceptible to natural selection), isn’t it their responsibility to get the “vaccine” or live within a bubble and isolate themselves from all possible contacts to society?
            Was the initial “Slow the spread” misrepresented by the CDC and Dr. Fauci because when they stated this and “Flatten the curve” this implied to me that it was a numbers game to not over inundate the medical system; not implying that we were all going to get the virus eventually?
            Not bringing in all of the other points of contention into this conversation, but just attempting to understand this single point you brought up regarding herd immunity.

          5. “not implying that we were all going to get the virus eventually?”
            as well as implying that we were all going to get the virus eventually?

    2. I would like to know who your obstructionists are too…could you please elaborate Check?

        1. So…if that is the case then you are the obstructionist for your side and narrative plus you have already established you are an expert from the beginning…makes perfect sense to me Check.

          1. I’ve very often stated that I’m not an expert in the fields of immunology or infectious diseases. But given my background and education, I’m still more knowledgeable in those fields than most people here, especially you, as you have demonstrated many times.

          2. I should also add that if you ever apologized to me like you mentioned above, I never saw it, which is quite possible give the way stories flow in and out of this system.

          3. RC seems to think as a little god. Never-mind that there’s a lot of RESEARCH to EXCLUDE, as it doesn’t Fit The Compliance line.

        2. Here you go Check…01/25/2022…

          First and foremost…thank you…didn’t know the moderator program was that thorough…but it is a program. If it was me I would code the program to only recognize the word and not the various combinations of forbidden words…that would be the common sense thing to do.

          Secondly…thanks for the suggestion about putting people down…I will try to be more careful in the future and as you know there are two sides to every coin. Did we just have a moment or a breakthrough? lol

          And yesterday: I know in the past I have been a bit course in my comments to others and did apologize to Check hoping we could some day have civil discourse and engage in a conversation intended for us to maybe understand each others viewpoints at some point in time…but alas. Let freedom ring!

          Is that good enough? Let’s try this…I apologize for some of things…some…I have made to you in these comments sections. I will try in the future to be more careful how I comment to you…civil discourse as I stated above…good day to you sir!

          1. I’d like to think we are both actually on the same side, but with different methods of achieving the same objective. But that requires some mutual understanding, and I’m having a hard time understanding how anyone can believe some of the things you have posted. But if we start on the basis that we’re both Americans, with the ultimate intent of the good of our country, that can go a long way. I’d just like to understand more of the logic behind some of your apparent beliefs.
            Meanwhile, peace . . . ☮

    3. If you ask me…. if it was about saving lives than why not use any and all treatments available? Why did the fed govt ban or not allow the use of several drugs and therapies that had scientific data showing they help with Covid patients survival? Why are they still in spite of scientific data still suppressing those drugs/therapies. Other countries have allow them. Our govt outlawed them, publicly berated doctors and scientists for their data and findings.
      So who is being obstructive in fighting this virus?

      1. Our government has one of the most stringent checks of drugs before approving them. Many of the supposed cures and treatments available elsewhere have potentially fatal side effects, and are therefore not approved under our standard of care. It’s very often the case that the potential for harm outweighs the likely benefit, especially when there are less harmful alternatives available. And that’s the part that most people are missing. The side effects of the unapproved drugs are potentially far worse than any of the approved Covid vaccines, which in turn are far safer than the possible effects of Covid itself.

  3. personally I was disappointed by covid, everyone told me it was the worst cold/flu they had ever had. It took me 3 days to beat it well 6 if you count loss of smell.

    1. I’m glad to hear about people who didn’t suffer that much. Unfortunately it took many lives during its course from those who were not as fortunate as you.

    2. my son in law got it-more back and body aches than anything, some headache, no fever. 3 days of rest and he was just left with a stuffy nose.
      Advil saved the day. Thank God that’s still approved by the government.

  4. It is taking the normal course of a virus in a community. This will fade away in the next year and life will go on.

    1. “Normal” viruses typically don’t result in 5½ million deaths worldwide before dissipating.

      1. The normal course of A Virus (not a normal virus)….. reading comprehension my friend. Is there such thing as a normal virus? Yep, but when it is engineered in a lab look what happens.

        1. I understand your point. But the normal course of anything is determined by an ânalysis of behavior under normal circümstances. A virus with extremely virulent behavior does not fit the normal course of anything.
          And I doubt very much if Covid originated in a lab. But if it did, that’s all the more reason to declare it as abnormal.

          1. If you still need a booster after being FULLY vaccinated, and still need to get tested after being FULLY vaccinated, and still need to wear a mask after being FULLY vaccinated, and still get hospitalized after being FULLY vaccinated … it’s probably time you admitted that you have been FULLY conned.

          2. @Hasenpfeffer: It was originally believed that two shots of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines would be sufficient. With the emergence of the more virulent delta variant, it became clear that was not the case. So the dosage was adjusted accordingly by the addition of a booster shot. That’s how the approval processes of medications work, by monitoring results and tuning them as necessary. As someone else here recently pointed out, this is not a black and white science. There are many shades of gray in between that you apparently aren’t able to see.

        1. And I don’t believe those “worldwide” numbers. My opinion…I want to make that perfectly clear before you and your ilk jump all over my comments Check.

          1. To really seems that RC expects everyone to Just Submit to A Single thought, yet discounts that others have a different perspective and look at more than the FEW Data Points Offered that FIT the ‘one’. Those who Follow the Savior, have seen that GOD can weather The Challenges, but NONE are Permitted from the other. Strikes at a stance of Faith, this Illness. Some Do and others…

        2. You’re correct about the numbers. But that was before vaccines were available, right?
          Welcome to the 21st century.

  5. In a speech in DC for the defeat of the Mandates, it pointed out that one of the most disconcerting alarming features of this pandemic response has been the war against conscientious doctors whose lives and livelihoods are being destroyed because they are trying to do their job and protect our children. “Orchestrated use, confusion and fear, by manipulating PCR tests and over-amplifying them, by changing the metrics on how death certificates are calculated. We were manipulated, and the press was manipulated, into telling us that all Americans face the same threat as older people.

    And that meant we couldn’t have a rational response that would protect vulnerable and protected people in our livelihoods, our culture, our political freedoms, our const_itutional rights and our values, which are ultimately all public health issues.” . Watch the video (01/25/2022) Yes, Just, the tyrants are losing control over minds. Many truths about the management of this false pandemic are coming to light. The mandates are receding, the trials against genocide are being promoted and the restrictions will gradually end, Omicron has pointed the way to the syndemic, which in reality is what we have always had, Fauci’s “flu”. The narrative is falling apart. Here are five major new developments you should be aware of. (01/19/2022)

    1. Sorry, but Steve Kirsch is one of the well-known promoters of disinformation about Covid. In May 2021, he posted an article online claiming that COVID-19 vaccines affect fertility, while also underplaying the vaccines’ ability to prevent illness and death, both statements criticized by fact checkers as being inaccurate and misleading. Then in September 2021, speaking at an FDA meeting, he falsely claimed that the vaccines “kill twice as many as they save”. His claims have been widely disputed, and he never seems to follow up those claims with any evidence.
      That’s why you and I don’t see eye to eye, because you believe people that I don’t, and vice-versa.

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