Trump says the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. But most ships are staying put

By Chris Isidore, CNN

(CNN) — President Donald Trump says the vital Strait of Hormuz has been reopened under terms of an agreement reached Sunday with Iran. Shipping industry sources aren’t so sure.

“Ships are starting to move, many loaded up with Oil, out of the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump posted Monday on social media.

But experts who track ship movements say that’s not the case. Uncertainy over what’s in the agreement and other risks will are likely to keep traffic through the critical choke point to a trickle for weeks or months.

“The statements by the US and Iran are currently unclear and do not offer sufficient information regarding key aspects such as timings and safe routes,” Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO), a major international organization of ship operators, said in a statement.

“Due to lack of details and a history of overly optimistic reassurances, we believe the security situation for the shipping industry remains volatile, and we still consider it very risky for ships to commence transits at this point,” he said. “We advise shipowners to continue doing thorough risk assessments and appeal to all parties to put the safety of seafarers first.”

Some ships have already been going through the strait – even when the war was in full swing.

“Despite the ongoing naval blockade and the steep decline in commercial traffic, surprising volumes of crude and petroleum products still appear to be transiting the strait,” Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s head of global commodities strategy, wrote in a client note recently.

And during other moments of opportunity during previous tentative agreements, ships have rushed to the exits.

Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNN that between 0% to 10% of normal flows of oil were making it out of the strait most days, which he said has helped keep oil prices from going higher. Hopes that the strait is close to reopening sent oil futures down to a 3-month low Monday.

But Kpler, which tracks ship movements, said that its data shows no significant movement for the 220 tankers and the nearly 500 overall ships now trapped in the Persian Gulf.

“This isn’t a surprise, as the deal isn’t scheduled to be signed until Friday,” said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler. It will likely take three to four months before traffic can be considered “normal,” he added.

Most ship operators will want to see other ships make it through the strait before they have the confidence to go themselves, Smith said – and so will maritime insurers, which haven’t yet shown a willingness to insure ships going through the strait. But without insurance, ships will be even more hesitant to transit, creating a standoff.

“It’s a chicken-and-egg situation,” Smith said.

Major maritime insurers did not have any indication on their websites that they were again insuring vessels in case of attacks. One maritime insurer, Skuld, confirmed that it had not changed its coverage limitations.

“Any market-wide review of rates, especially the war rates that apply in the Strait of Hormuz, would almost certainly depend on the certainty of safe voyages,” the company said.

BIMCO’s Larsen said shipping lines need assurances that mine-free routes have been established. Trump on Monday said that work is now underway.

“They’re doing a little hunting for a couple of mines that they’ve already found, but … ships are starting to go out now,” Trump said during a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron at the G7 summit. “On Friday, it’ll be completely open.”

But Larsen said shipping lines also need clarity on matters such as keeping ships a safe distance from each other and naval protection.

“Ships trapped in the Persian Gulf will be interested in leaving as soon as it is safe to do so,” Larsen said. “The next step is for shipowners to be reassured that transiting the Strait of Hormuz is not only permitted but also safe.”

CNN’s Matt Eagan, Maisie Linford and Donald Judd contributed to this report.

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