Election Day storm could impact voter turnout in key midterm races in the central US

By Meteorologist Chris Dolce, CNN

(CNN) — A soggy storm will track through the central United States on Election Day and could influence voter turnout for key races in the region.

Rain will fall on a widespread area from the Great Lakes, Plains and Upper Midwest to the western Gulf Coast Tuesday. Wet conditions are possible for key races in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan and eastern Texas.

The threat of flash flooding is low, but voters traveling to the polls could encounter ponding on roads.

Thunderstorms are expected on the storm’s southern side, a few of which could intensify and turn severe from eastern Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. Damaging wind gusts will likely be the main threat from any severe storms.

Breezy conditions are also likely throughout a large portion of the central US, especially in the Plains. Kansas could see gusts between 30 to 40 mph.

The conditions will be a turnout factor in those states and for others in the central US who aren’t among the more than 43 million people who have already cast ballots through early voting.

Rainfall and other active weather tend to suppress voter turnout while sunshine has the opposite effect, multiple studies have found.

Dry weather will likely bookend the storm along much of the East Coast and in the West. The only exception is coastal areas of the Southeast where nuisance showers can’t be completely ruled out yet.

There will be no need to bundle up. High temperatures in most of the nation’s eastern half are forecast to be 5 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit above average. Only the Southwest will have temperatures tilting a bit cooler than average.

The breakdown below shows the forecast for some of the key states in the midterms. Keep in mind these forecasts will likely change as confidence grows in the storm’s path by this weekend.

Key race forecast

• Georgia: Likely dry with highs in the 70s and low 80s.
• Iowa: Rain is still likely, but it’s still too early to pinpoint what parts of the state will be most affected. Highs will reach the 60s in much of the state, except the northwest corner where 50s are expected.
• Kansas: Central and eastern parts of the state are most likely to experience wind-driven rainfall. Highs will range from the 40s and 50s in the state’s northwest corner to the 60s and low 70s in the east.
• Maine: Northern Maine could see showers, but the timing is still up in the air. Highs will reach the 40s and lower 50s.
• Michigan: Northern and western parts of the state could see rain for at least part of the day. Highs will range from the 50s in the Upper Peninsula to the 60s in Lower Michigan.
• New Hampshire: A nuisance shower or two is possible in northern portions of the state, but more significant rain chances are low right now. Highs will be in 40s and 50s.
• North Carolina: Likely dry with highs in the 70s.
• Ohio: All forecast models now keep rainfall west of the state, but we’re still monitoring for changes. Highs should hit the 70s.
• Texas: Eastern and coastal Texas has the best chance to see rain. A few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind are also possible. Highs will range from 80s near the coast to 60s in the state’s panhandle.

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