EXPLAINER: How do we know when a recession has begun?

By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER
AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve sent a sobering message after it announced its latest big interest rate hike: It plans to keep raising rates as long as it takes to conquer the worst inflation bout in decades — even at the risk of causing a recession in the process. Its aggressive pace of rate hikes will increasingly make borrowing and spending costly for consumers and businesses. Job cuts and rising unemployment could follow. And eventually, as the job market steadily weakens along with the economy, a recession could follow. Given the strength of the job market, most economists say a recession seems months away, at least. But most of them nevertheless think an economic downturn is inevitable.